Commercial HVAC held pricing steady through the refrigerant transition
The commercial HVAC industry expected the federal restrictions on refrigerants to put upward pressure on prices. Over a year post-transition, that pressure is not yet visible across broad commercial HVAC invoice data.
New analysis of aggregated, anonymized data from commercial HVAC contractors on the ServiceTitan platform found that the median invoice increased by 1.5% across installation, replacement, service, and repair work–slightly less than the 2025 consumer price index increase of 2.7%.
The finding shows that transition-related increases have not yet produced a clear break with trends in overall commercial HVAC invoices.
What the data shows
The analysis compared commercial HVAC contractors active on the ServiceTitan platform before and after the first major compliance dates. The median commercial HVAC invoice increased slightly from $1,229 during February-April 2024 to $1,245 in February-April 2026.
The increase appears as a monthly trend rather than a sharp change around January 2025. Based on this data, the refrigerant transition has not yet created a broad pricing spike for commercial HVAC customers.
Why invoice growth may have remained modest
Regulatory timing varies by equipment type
The transition is broader and more staggered than a single January 2025 deadline. EPA regulations establish global warming potential limits rather than requiring one specific refrigerant. R-454B is one option with lower global warming potential being adopted, but it is not the only one.
Compliance dates also vary across unitary systems, chillers, variable refrigerant flow systems, cold storage, and other commercial equipment. For example, variable refrigerant flow systems have a later installation compliance date than many comfort-cooling products.
EPA also finalized additional flexibility in May 2026. Eligible residential and light commercial systems manufactured or imported before January 1, 2025, may now be installed until that inventory is exhausted. As a result, not all contractors are moving to new equipment specifications at the same time.
Service work is less exposed to new-equipment costs
Repairs and maintenance do not always require purchasing a new refrigerant system. Existing equipment may continue to be operated and repaired throughout its useful life, and components can still be used to maintain legacy systems.
Commercial contracts can delay pricing changes
Many commercial HVAC relationships are governed by service agreements, negotiated rates, or project contracts. Contractors may not be able to change customer pricing immediately when supplier costs move. Therefore, new costs may not reach the customer until a contract renews, a pricebook is updated, or a new project is quoted.
What the R-22 transition can tell us
The R-22 phaseout provides a useful reminder that regulatory dates and customer pricing do not always move together.
Restrictions on the production and import of R-22 for new equipment began in 2010. Production and import for servicing existing systems continued until January 1, 2020. Existing systems could still be maintained using previously produced, recovered, or reclaimed refrigerants.
That extended timeline allowed the effects of the transition to move gradually through equipment inventories and the installed base.
The current transition could follow a similar pattern. Customer pricing may change more noticeably as older inventory declines, equipment with lower global warming potential represents a larger share of installations, and contractors gain a clearer view of ongoing material and service costs.
What this means for commercial HVAC contractors
The first 15 months of the transition have produced less movement in customer invoices than many expected. The second half of 2026 could provide a clearer indication of whether pricing pressure is beginning to reach commercial HVAC customers.
Contractors should use this time to review technician training, safety procedures, supplier relationships, pricebooks, service agreements, and job-costing practices. They should also monitor margins closely. Stable invoice values can appear positive while concealing increases in equipment or material costs.
Proactive contractors won’t wait for a visible industry-wide price spike. They will use their own cost and margin data to determine if pricing needs to change.
How ServiceTitan helps commercial HVAC contractors
ServiceTitan gives commercial HVAC contractors visibility into material costs, job costs, pricing, and margins across service, repair, installation, and replacement work.
Contractors can manage scheduling, dispatch, estimates, service agreements, pricebooks, proposals, and invoicing in one platform. Comprehensive visibility makes it easier to identify cost changes, update pricing, and understand how new equipment requirements are affecting business performance.
See how ServiceTitan helps commercial HVAC contractors manage service, installation, and replacement work.
ServiceTitan internal analysis. Same-store cohort of commercial HVAC contractors, install & service invoices, Jan 2024–Apr 2026. Customers who opted out of industry publications are excluded. Findings reflect ServiceTitan platform activity and may not represent broader market conditions. Correlation does not imply causation. Individual contractor results may vary.
