For this analysis, ServiceTitan analyzed proprietary data on about 1600 home services shops across the United States and Canada. The sample includes the active shops who have relied on ServiceTitan since 2019. The data were aggregated by trade (HVAC, plumbing, electrical, etc.) and by state to preserve client confidentiality.
June 1 Update: Reviewing the first 5 months of 2021
Our analysis of ServiceTitan data suggests that the service industry has successfully weathered the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic and is on track for a strong year in 2021.
While the pandemic continues to impact the home and commercial services sector, contracting businesses have seen significant growth in the first 5 months of 2021 (35% increase in revenue to date across the nation compared to 2019).
Overall, the demand for home services is expanding, with incoming calls up by 17% for the year-to-date (YTD) compared to the same period in 2019. Across the nation, revenue is up between 22% and 65% YTD compared to pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Shops of all sizes are seeing this substantial revenue growth.
Year-over-year (YOY), calls are up 31% through mid-May and revenue is up between 7% and 54% across states. Because of the depressed demand during the early months of the pandemic, calls are up 36% and 45% YOY in March and April and revenue is up 33% and 46% YOY, respectively.
Overall, in aggregate through May 16, revenue is up 30% YOY from 2020.
To avoid comparisons with a highly unusual period, the rest of the comparisons in this update compare 2021 numbers to pre-pandemic levels in 2019.
One contributing factor for some of the growth in 2021 is this winter’s weather. Over a quarter of the increase in call volume YTD relative to 2019 is due to the February 2021 winter storm, which wreaked havoc on Texas and, to a lesser extent, on neighboring states and the Ohio Valley region. (See below for more details on Texas.) Some of the states most affected (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas) experienced 58% YTD growth in calls and 45% YTD growth in revenue relative to 2019. The states not as affected by the February weather have experienced call growth of 12% and revenue growth of 34% YTD when compared to 2019 levels.
Looking ahead, there are signs that the industry is on track to continue growing the rest of the year. The contractors’ future jobs are considerably higher than at any time in the past two years. Compared to 2019, on average across the nation, future jobs are 25% higher YTD and were up 21% in the first two weeks of May.
As Covid-19 restrictions are eased and the economy rebalances, there is likely to continue to be more work for home and commercial services shops. Office buildings that were left idle for months may need additional work to become operational. Bath and kitchen remodels that may have been put on hold last year are likely to bounce back. Although there are factors that could potentially impact demand in the coming months, we do not see evidence of that thus far.
June 1 Regional Trends and Analysis
While contractors across the nation experienced sizable growth so far in 2021, there was some variation across regions.
Areas with the higher growth include the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley (especially Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan), Northwest (Idaho, Washington, and Oregon), and the South (Texas, Kansas, Arkansas, and Oklahoma). Together, those states averaged 50% YTD growth in revenue relative to 2019.
The regions that saw lower but still solid growth were the West (California) and some states in the Southeast (Florida, Georgia and South Carolina). Those four states averaged 23% YTD growth in revenue relative to 2019.
Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley
As noted in previous updates, Minnesota has weathered the pandemic well. Relative to 2019, calls are up 7% YTD, revenue is up an impressive 59% YTD, and future jobs are up about 44% YTD. Wisconsin and Michigan together have seen a 29% growth in calls YTD, along with 49% revenue growth and 26% growth in future jobs.
The states in the South have also seen large demand this year, in part due to the lasting effects of the severe winter storm. Between February 10 and 18, 2021, the storm brought sustained below-freezing temperatures to Texas, leading to burst pipes, overloaded heaters, and rolling power outages. The demand for home services in the state skyrocketed as calls jumped 7-fold over the two weeks of the storm. At the same time, revenue doubled and remained at elevated levels afterwards. In March and April, revenue was 62% and 40% higher than over the same months in 2019. Even in the first two weeks of May, revenue continued to be 37% above the levels in 2019. Overall, Texas calls and revenue are up 64% and 44% YTD compared to 2019.
Other states that have seen a surge due to the February storm include Arkansas (+33% YTD in calls and +52% YTD in revenue compared to 2019), Oklahoma (+52% YTD in calls and +42% YTD in revenue), and Kansas (+23% YTD in calls and +60% YTD in revenue).
Two of the states hit hardest by the pandemic, New York and New Jersey, bounced back in 2021. Compared to 2019, the shops in New York have experienced a 30% growth in revenue YTD, and revenue in New Jersey was up 28% YTD. In New York, calls were up 28% YTD compared to 2019. In New Jersey, calls were similar to their 2019 levels YTD, but have started to pick up in recent weeks. While cancellations in the two states are about 12% higher YTD, future jobs are 30% higher in New York and 28% higher in New Jersey, indicating a healthy demand for the coming months.
While most states significantly outperformed both their 2019 and 2020 metrics in each month of 2021, California experienced a weaker demand in the first few months of 2021. In January and February, monthly calls were 4% and 10% below their 2019 levels, respectively. However, in March, the demand for home and commercial services started picking up steam in California.
Relative to 2019 levels, calls in California were up 4% in March and April, and up 24% for the first half of May. The revenue for January was approximately at the 2020 level, though still 19% above 2019. By March, revenue grew as the demand rose and was about 27% above 2019 level. Overall, revenue is up about 23% YTD. Looking ahead into 2021, California seems to be on-track for a good summer as the future jobs have grown since mid-March and are 17% above their 2019 levels for the first half of May.
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PREVIOUS UPDATES: DEC. 17, 2020
ServiceTitan data shows that the industry is closing off the year strong, even with Covid-19 surging and an uncertain economy.
In aggregate, revenue was up +17% year-over-year for the week of Dec. 10-16, which is similar to the previous three weeks. This is the best four consecutive weeks of the year in terms of revenue and there are still tailwinds going into the latter-half of December, since calls were up +7% YoY this past week.
There isn’t much interesting to look at regionally, because, frankly, all of the states we are tracking did better than 2019 last week.
This includes California, which had a slight down week before, but is now +4%. There were a handful of states in the Eastern region that had call volumes running slightly lower than 2019, which we shall keep an eye on.
DECEMBER 10 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that December has continued to be a strong month as we roll into the holiday season.
In aggregate, revenue was up +17% year-over-year for the week of Dec 3-9, which is up from +15% of the past two weeks. Call demand was also up substantially at +17% last week vs. +7.5% the previous week. This bodes well for the next few weeks leading into the holidays.
Similar to last week, most areas of the country were quite strong. An exception, again, was California, which was only up in revenue +2% and at -3% for calls. This has been perhaps the most aggressive state in terms of stay-at-home orders, so we will see if other states that adopt stringent orders follow a similar trajectory in the coming weeks.
New York, one of the hardest hit states at the start of the pandemic, saw back-to-back very strong weeks in terms of revenue — up +43% year-over-year for Dec. 3-9. Call volume was also up +20% year-over-year in New York — a strong sign for the weeks to come.
DECEMBER 3 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that the industry is transitioning out of the Thanksgiving holiday with a very strong week in revenue and calls.
In aggregate, revenue was up +12.5% year-over-year for the week of Nov. 26-Dec. 2, compared to +15% the previous week. This wraps up November at more than +10% YoY, which is now the 6th consecutive month higher than +10%. For context, revenue was around +7% pre-Covid and was down -10% YoY in April. We will see if this recovery continues into the holiday season, especially now that Covid cases are rising at a very high level across the U.S.
Most regions of the country performed well this week — and calls were up +8.8% in aggregate.
California, which was +2.3% in revenue, did have a rather poor week in lead calls. It was down -16% YoY, which was down from -9% the previous week. There have been more stay-at-home orders in California, which may be impacting customer behavior. We will track this to see if it continues into December.
NOVEMBER 19 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that revenue is consistent with last week. Calls, however, rebounded from last week’s troubling numbers and had its best week since mid-October.
In aggregate, revenue was up +7% year-over-year for the week of Nov. 12-18, which is in line with the previous week’s +6% YoY.
Calls, which had been below 2019 numbers in the previous two weeks, were up +6.5% last week — which is reassuring since calls are generally a leading indicator of revenue.
Last week, we saw troubling signs in the Midwest regarding call demand. The concern was that the Covid-19 outbreak hitting this region was spilling over into the industry. It appears this was a one-off as calls for the states in the Midwest went from down -19% YoY to up +14.5% this week. We will continue to monitor this region closely.
The Western and Mountain regions saw higher demand and revenue than the previous week. Arizona, California, Colorado, Utah and Washington all were up more than +10% for both revenue and calls. The Eastern part of the country saw more mixed results — with good numbers out of Florida (+12.5% revenue) and New York (+25%), but lower numbers in New Jersey (-5%) and North Carolina (-2%).
NOVEMBER 12 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that revenue, while still strong compared to 2019, dropped a little in comparison to previous weeks. Other indicators, such as lead calls, were down compared to 2019.
In aggregate, revenue was up +4% year-over-year for the week of November 5-11. This is the first week since July where revenue has been less than +10% YoY. Calls were down -4.3% from 2019, which is the 2nd down week in a row. There is a very serious spike of Covid-19 cases around the country, so we will see if this correlates with less demand. This was the case in certain regions earlier in the year, but now Covid is striking every region of the U.S.
One area with slackened demand is the Midwest. When looking (in aggregate) at Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin we see that calls have dropped -17.4% compared to 2019. This was +2% last week and almost +20% two weeks ago. This is also arguably the most impacted area of the U.S. with the current Covid outbreak.
It’s too soon to say whether this is a trend, but we will be monitoring the revenue number closely. Revenue for those states, in aggregate, slipped to -2.8% this week, down from +10.5% the previous week.
Western states are holding up reasonably well in terms of call demand. As with the states in the Midwest, we will track these closely in the upcoming weeks to see if this holds:
OCTOBER 29 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that revenue had a strong week to close out October, even with Covid-19 cases rising across the country. Calls also jumped appreciably.
In aggregate, revenue was up +10.5% year-over-year for the week of October 22-28, compared to +10% the previous week. Calls were up +13.5 YoY, which is the highest increase from 2019 in over a month. This is a good sign, since calls had been trending slightly lower the past few weeks compared with the summer.
An exception to the high revenue lately has been New York, which was flat compared to 2019 this week. This is the third week in a row that is down from where it had been trending after its Covid-19 recovery. The silver lining is that calls were up +25% YoY, which shows that things may pick up in November.
OCTOBER 22 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that revenue is still well above 2019 level and calls have recovered after a dip in the previous week.
In aggregate, revenue was up +8.5% year-over-year for the week of October 15-21, compared to up +11.5% in the previous week. Calls were up +6% YoY, compared to a dip of -1.3% in the previous week — and were especially strong later in the week. We will continue to monitor whether this recovery in calls continues into late October.
Last week, we called out that New York was less than 5% above 2019, which was low relative to other weeks during the state’s recovery from April’s nadir. This week, revenue was down -8.6% YoY, which was the first down week since late May. Calls were up +13.5% YoY, which is an improvement over the previous two weeks, but still lower than the previous months of data.
As mentioned last week, Covid-19 cases have been going up in the Northeast (as well as most other parts of the country) after several months of it being lower in that area relative to other regions.
We also noticed weakness in Massachusetts and New Jersey last week. Happily, they have each bounced back to around +15% YoY. Calls, however, were quite weak this past week for both states — down about -10% YoY. We will continue to monitor the Northeast next week to see if this drop in calls leads to a corresponding drop in revenue.
The other area that we were concerned about last week was the Midwest, due to dropping call volumes. This week, all of the states we tracked rebounded with very strong weeks in calls:
Minnesota call volume surged to +45% YoY this week, compared to down -12% the previous week. That also resulted in a +45% increase this week in revenue.
Michigan call volume rose this week to +25.5% YoY
Indiana call volume rebounded to +5% YoY, up from -18% the previous week
Illinois call volume rebounded to +23% YoY, up from -11% the previous week
OCTOBER 15 UPDATE
Revenue was up +10% year-over-year for the week of October 8-14, compared to up +15% the previous week.
Calls were essentially flat at -.5% YoY, compared to up +4% the previous two weeks — and far down from the weeks in mid-September where calls were up more than +10% YoY. We will continue to track this to see if this trend continues.
New York, which had been on an extraordinary revenue recovery, was up only +3.5% in revenue this week. It had been up more than +10% YoY since mid-August, including several weeks of increases higher than +27%. This downtick in revenue is correlated with an uptick in Covid cases in the region.
There are similar dynamics now in Massachusetts and New Jersey — both of which are also slightly above 2019 numbers after being up +15% YoY in previous weeks. As signs of another wave of Covid-19 begin to emerge, we will see if other states have similar patterns.
Interestingly, another region that has seen more Covid in recent weeks, the Midwest, is still posting strong year-over-year numbers for revenue. Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota were all well over 2019 numbers for revenue. The same states, however, were below 2019 in call volume. Since call volume is generally a lagging indicator of revenue, we will be sure to keep a close eye on this region.
OCTOBER 8 UPDATE
Revenue was up 13% YoY for the week of October 1-7. This is compared to 12% in the final week of September. This is the 10th full week in a row (not counting Labor Day week) where we are seeing revenue increases of more than +10% YoY, which shows how consistent this recovery has been.
Calls continued to be positive YoY as well, up +6% for the week of October 1-7.
Some of the states that had been running lower in recent weeks also saw rebounds:
» Louisiana and South Carolina bounced back into positive territory this week.
» Florida, which had only been up 1% You two weeks ago, saw a revenue increase of +21% last week.
» The Oklahoma-Texas-Utah region all moved into positive territory as well.
OCTOBER 1 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data for the past week shows revenue continuing higher in 2020 than 2019 — but by a slightly smaller margin than in previous weeks.
Revenue was up +10% the week of Sep. 24-30, compared with 11.5% the week of Sept. 17-23 and +15% the week prior.
Revenue was particularly low the last 3 days of this week (Monday-Wednesday), so we will be tracking whether this reduced revenue continues into next week. Calls were still relatively high at +6% YoY.
Last week, we noted that the Southeast did poorly relative to the rest of the country. It was another tough week for this region with Louisiana and South Carolina between well below 2019 revenue.
The Intermountain region also had a tough week with Oklahoma, Texas, and Utah combined down -4% YoY. This is the second week in a row where this region has shown some weakness, so we will continue to track this.
The one area that had the most consistently strong revenue numbers was in the Midwest again. Minnesota was up +23% YoY, Michigan was up +27% and Ohio was up +23%.
SEPT. 24 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows a year-over-year increase in calls and revenue, although not for all regions.
Revenue was up +10.5% YoY for the week of Sept. 17-23, compared to +14.5% the week of Sept. 10-16. There was a large increase in call leads, which were up +20% year-over-year — resulting in one of the highest weeks of the year in calls. That should lead to a strong close to September next week.
The only region that didn’t trend higher than 2019 this past week was the Southeast.
Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina were below 2019 levels by -3.5% in aggregate. It does seem, however, that business is picking up, since calls were up +19% for these same states. We will monitor them next week to see if these calls translate into revenue.
The strongest areas were areas in the Upper Midwest where Michigan and Minnesota both were up more than +20% in revenue year-over-year.
New York continued its impressive recovery from Covid with a revenue increase of +50.3% year-over-year. This is 17th consecutive week of year-over-year gains — and marks the inverse of the low point for New York in early April, when it hit its nadir of -49%. In addition, calls were up +68% year-over-year last week in New York, so this trend is likely to continue.
SEPT. 17 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data continues to show a strong increase in year-over-year revenue and calls.
Revenue was up +12% YoY for the week of Sept. 10-16, which is the fifth full week in a row — excluding Labor Day week — that is up at least +10% over 2019.
Calls were up +15%, for the 11th consecutive week where call demand has been higher than 2019. This is key, because even before Covid, calls were down YoY compared with 2019.
We saw different trends regionally this week:
» States in the Southeast, such as Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina all had revenue between -2% and -8% YoY
» Western states, which have been impacted by the fires, seem to have recovered business — Washington up +29% in revenue, and California up +11%. Oregon, however, has its second straight down week with -3.5% revenue compared to 2019, but still improved on last week’s -29.5%.
» Across the south, we saw strong revenue numbers from Arizona (+25%), Texas (+9%) and Louisiana (+22%)
SEPT. 10 SUMMARY
ServiceTitan data shows a slight decrease in year-over-year revenue, but this is due in part to Labor Day falling one week later in 2020 than 2019.
Similar to last week, year-over-year comparisons aren’t totally accurate due to Labor Day timing. This means that revenue decreased -6.5% YoY the week of September 3-9, compared with +37% the previous week. Interestingly, calls were actually up +5% even with the long weekend. This means that the demand might be seen next week in revenue. When looking at calls by day, the last two days of this week were very strong — up +48% on Tuesday and +23% on Wednesday.
One thing we will be keeping a close eye on is if the wildfires in the Western US will have an impact. California, Oregon, and Washington, all of which have been affected by fires this week, were lower than the national average this week in revenue.
SEPT. 3 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows a big week in revenue and calls in year-over-year growth, although the comparable week last year included Labor Day.
The next two weeks will be apples-to-oranges comparisons, due to differences in the timing of Labor Day in 2019 and 2020. Due to there being one extra work day, revenue was up around +37% YoY in the week of Aug. 27-Sept. 2, and calls were up around +25%. Looking at comparable days that were not impacted by the holiday, the numbers change to around +10% for both revenue and calls.
The one region that had a bad week comparatively was Louisiana, which was down -15% YoY for revenue. There was a large influx of calls (+100%), so signs are this will be a one-week anomaly due to Hurricane Laura.
The other thing we will be keeping an eye on is the heatwave coming into the West during this holiday weekend and how this will impact HVAC shops.
AUGUST 27 SUMMARY
Key takeaway: ServiceTitan data shows another strong week in both calls and revenue.
Revenue was up +14% YoY in the week of August 20-26, matching the previous week. Similar to last week, no states are trending below 2019. Calls were unchanged from last week at +17% for both, which means we are seeing the highest consistent YoY call volume of the year these past weeks. This means that we should see revenue continue to be strong into the start of September.
California, which has struggled in late July/early August, continued its recovery with a revenue increase of +20% YoY for Aug. 20-26. Calls remain quite high at +35%, which is down from +70% last week, but still higher than just about any other period of time in 2020, compared to 2019.
Revenue is down for the last few days in Louisiana and Texas, presumably due to Hurricane Laura. We will continue to track these states in the days and weeks ahead during this challenging time.
AUGUST 20 UPDATE
Key takeaway: ServiceTitan data shows that revenue continues to be strong this August — and for the first time this year, every state we are tracking was stronger compared to 2019.
Revenue was up +13% YoY for the week of August 13-19, compared to +11% YoY the week of August 6-12. The main difference between this week and other recent strong weeks is how widespread the revenue gains were. In addition, call leads were up +18% nationwide, indicating that this strength in revenue will continue into next week. The only similar week in terms of call volume came in early June, when all the pent-up demand from the early stages of the Covid shutdown started to surge.
While August has been quite strong for our industry in many states, California had shown troubling demand — there had been 4 weeks in a row with less call volume than 2019. We had posited that the below-average temperature had played a part in this indicator. This week, however, we have seen much higher temperatures and call demand has increased to nearly +75% YoY. Revenue was also healthier at +10% YoY, which is the best in California since the week of July 16-22, and we expect this to be even higher in the next week.
The other state with eye-catching numbers was Iowa. Sadly, this may be due to the derecho storm that has devastated Iowa. Call demand was up +80% during this troubling week. We will continue to monitor Iowa during their recovery.
AUGUST 13 UPDATE
Key takeaway: ServiceTitan data shows that revenue continues to be high as the post-Covid recovery enters its 15th consecutive week.
Revenue, in aggregate, was up +12.5% year-over-year for the week of August 6-12, which is the second strong week to start off August — last week was up +16% YoY. Call demand also remained quite strong with YoY growth of +11%, nearly matching the +10.5% increase the previous week. Similar to last week, there were impressive results across the country.
New Jersey had its best revenue week since early June with an increase of +15% YoY. Call demand in New Jersey also jumped +62% YoY, so this increase in revenue is poised to continue.
States in the Midwest also had impressive weeks with Minnesota, Iowa, and Indiana all bringing in +15% YoY revenue and increased call demand across the region. Michigan’s call demand increased +45% YoY, making this a state to watch in the upcoming weeks.
California and Colorado, two states we have been monitoring closely, had diverging weeks. Colorado had a revenue increase of +12% YoY, which is reassuring after two sluggish weeks. Call demand was flat, so we will continue to observe the recovery there.
California was up +1.5% in YoY revenue, which is the 2nd flat week after being down -10% YoY for the week of July 23-29. Calls in California were down -2.5%, which is the 4th week of negative YoY numbers for calls.
AUGUST 6 UPDATE
Key takeaway: ServiceTitan data shows that revenue, in aggregate, was nearly as high as it’s been at any time in 2020, even pre-Covid.
Revenue was up +15% year-over-year for the week of July 30-August 5, which was a substantial improvement over the +5% increase the week of July 23-29. This is the 14th consecutive week that has been higher than 2019 and it came from impressive revenue results across the country.
Alabama, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, and New York all saw revenue increases greater than +30% YoY — with New York up a solid 36% YoY.
There were a few states that we had concerns about last week. Among these, Florida and Utah both had a healthy revenue increase of more than +15% YoY, compared with around -5% the previous week. Their call demand was also healthy — with Utah at +30% YoY and Florida at 15% YoY.
California and Colorado also improved from last week, but have less impressive numbers. They both were down around -10% YoY last week and are now slightly above 2019 — Colorado up +3% this week, and California up +1%. We will continue to monitor these states closely.
JULY 30 UPDATE
Key takeaway: ServiceTitan data shows that revenue, while still above 2019, dropped in comparison to the last several strong weeks. This drop was isolated to a handful of states.
Revenue was up +3.8% year-over-year for the week of July 23-29, compared to +10% the week of July 16-22. The main reason for this drop appears to be declines in revenue in Western states. California, Colorado, and Utah had combined +8.5% YoY revenue from July 16-22, but were down -13% this week. Similar to last week, we believe that some of this is attributed to weather. The LA metro area has now had more than two weeks of night-time temperatures that are lower than 2019. We will continue tracking these states to see if these trends continue.
Florida is another state that had a low-revenue week. It fell from +7.5% to -4.5% and saw calls drop from +7.5% to +2%. We believe that the hurricane watch for Tropical Storm Isaias may be a major cause of this decrease in revenue, but there also was a surge in covid-related deaths that could be a factor as well.
In more positive news, New York, with +10% YoY revenue increase, continued its impressive recovery with its 9th straight week of gains in revenue. Calls were also up +33% YoY in New York last week.
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JULY 23 UPDATE
Key takeaway: ServiceTitan data shows July continues to be a strong month for revenue and call demand, despite the increasing numbers of Covid-19 cases in much of the country.
Revenue was up +8.4% year-over-year for the week of July 16-22, compared with +10.5% the week of July 9-15. Only a handful of states are underperforming compared to 2019, but there is no obvious regional pattern to these particular states.
For example, in the Pacific Northwest, Oregon was down -12% YoY this past week, while Washington was up +15%. But while revenue was down this week in Oregon, the good news is that their call demand surged to +26.5% this week — so a revenue bounce-back may be on the horizon.
In some of the hardest-hit Covid-19 states:
Texas revenue was up +12% this week
Florida revenue was up +6% this week
Georgia revenue was up +20% this week
Arizona revenue was up +9% this week
Call demand remains high, which bodes well for the close of July. Call demand was up +9% in the week of July 16-22, which is up from +8% the previous week. One area we are monitoring for demand is in some Western states — Arizona, California, Colorado and Utah — where demand was down below 2019 this past week. We believe some of this is attributable to weather; for example, the LA metro area has been running cooler for the past 8 days in our data, when compared to 2019.
JULY 16 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that key indicators remained strong even with the Covid-19 outbreak surging in many areas of the country.
Revenue, in aggregate, was up +9% year-over-year for the week of July 9-15. This is now the 11th consecutive week with revenue higher than 2019 and these are encouraging numbers, because the YoY revenue is higher than the two weeks prior to the week of July 4. There were concerns about revenue worsening due to the latest Coronavirus outbreak, but there were few signs of revenue being impacted in Covid-19 saturated areas, when compared to areas that aren’t as affected.
Calls were up +9.5% across the nation, which is more in line with the increased demand we saw in late May and early June than the lessening demand we were tracking for the weeks before the holiday. The strong performance in this metric means we should hopefully see another good week of revenue.
The wildcard in this is obviously the Covid-19 outbreak and how consumer behavior changes if more lockdowns are put in place. One state that we will be watching closely for this is California, which has rolled back its reopening plan. Since this announcement by the governor we have seen two days of slightly lower than 2019 call demand, which is not a trend yet but something to keep an eye on.
Three other highly-impacted states have been Florida, Arizona and Texas, each of which is setting new records for cases and hospitalizations. Florida data, however, has stayed strong, with revenue up +11% YoY this week, and calls still up +5% YoY. In Texas, calls were up +23% YoY this week, with revenue up +5% as well. Arizona was also solid, up +16% in revenue YoY this week, with calls up +7%.
JULY 9 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that revenue had a very strong week in year-over-year numbers. Due to the implications of the holiday week, we are waiting to see if this is a trend.
In aggregate, revenue was up +15% YoY for the week of July 2-8, compared with up +6.5% for the week of June 25-July 1. There is reason to be cautious of this data, since July 4th fell on a Thursday in 2019 and on a Saturday this year. This means that 2020 had one more high-job weekday than 2019, which skews the YoY data.
Calls were up +18% this week and although a similar holiday-weekend caveat applies, there were still good numbers after the weekend with calls up +15% YoY from Monday to Wednesday. There are reports of a nationwide heat wave settling in for July, so we will monitor call demand closely.
JULY 2 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that revenue is still stronger than 2019, but some regions are seeing a downward trend with Covid-19 outbreaks being a potential factor.
In aggregate, revenue was up 3.5% year over year for the week of June 25-July 1. This is the ninth consecutive week where aggregate revenue has been higher than 2019. This was a slight drop from the previous week, when revenue was up +7.5% YoY. Calls were down -3% this past week, which is down considerably from the past five weeks. This week was more in line with call volume before the Covid crisis, which was also tracking slightly below 2019.
Two of the hardest-hit states, New York and New Jersey, had been trending in a positive direction for the past three weeks. New York remained very strong this past week, posting a YoY revenue increase of 14%, which is the highest since the crisis and second-highest this year. New Jersey saw a YoY decrease of -11.5%, which may be a one week anomaly, since it has been tracking with New York. We will keep an eye on these dynamics.
Several states have been struggling with Covid outbreaks over the past few weeks. Some of these states are holding up well with their key metrics, even with this influx of cases. Florida, for example, was +5% in revenue this past week and had a +24% increase in calls, which is the state’s best number for calls this year.
States such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Oregon were sharply down from 2019 with a combined revenue decrease of -8.5%. These states, however, were +6% in calls last week. Other Covid-impacted states like California, Arizona, and Utah were essentially flat in revenue and down -8% in calls. This is a highly fluid situation and we will continue to monitor these trends.
JUNE 25 SUMMARY
ServiceTitan data shows that revenue and calls are still higher than 2019 in aggregate — but that regional differences are surfacing, with some areas still very strong and others at or below 2019 levels.
For the week of June 18-25, revenue remained positive, up +6% year-over-year, compared with +12% the previous two weeks. This is similar to the average week before the Covid-19 pandemic began, and is the eighth consecutive week that revenue has been higher than 2019. Similar to last week, there were large differences between regions of the country.
New York and New Jersey continue to be above 2019 revenue levels for the third consecutive week, at +6% year-over-year. Calls remain quite high — with New York up +62% YoY and New Jersey up +22% this week, showing that demand continues to be high in this region, which has apparently beaten the Covid-19 curve.
The Midwest and Great Lakes region continues to be strong in revenue. In aggregate, revenue was up +24.5% in the states of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin for the week of June 18-25. This was the first time since April 2-8 that revenue hadn’t improved upon the previous week, but was the fourth straight week it was up more than 23% year-over-year.
The Western states of California and Arizona were down -5.5% YoY for the week of June 18-25, roughly matching the decrease of -5% the previous week. This is the third straight week of declines, after seven straight weeks of recovery. Calls nearly matched 2019 levels this week, a solid improvement from the previous two weeks. We will monitor these states closely to see if revenue starts to show improvement in the next week.
Lastly, two other states that have seen an influx of Covid-19 cases are Texas and Florida. Combined, their revenue was down -1.5% YoY this week, compared to up +15% the previous week. Calls were also down -7% year-over-year for the two states. As Texas paused its reopening this week, and Florida continued to show record numbers of coronavirus cases, we’ll be monitoring these states closely in the weeks to come.
JUNE 18 SUMMARY
ServiceTitan data shows that revenue remains strong in aggregate. Leading indicators, however, suggest that the recovery may be tapering off in specific regions.
For the week of June 11-17, revenue was up +11% year-over-year, compared with 12% the week of June 4-10. This is now the seventh consecutive week with positive YoY numbers for revenue. There were, however, stark regional differences this past week.
In New York and New Jersey, two of the earliest hard-hit states, revenue has been trending high for two weeks in a row: +6% YoY for the week of June 11-17 and +9% for June 4-10. Calls have been extremely high in this region — up 48% this current week, down from an astounding 60% the week before. This shows that revenue still has room to grow in the coming weeks.
In the Midwest and Great Lakes region, which includes Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin revenue has been over +30% YoY for two weeks in a row, and up +38% YoY for the past week. Calls, while not as high as they had been the previous three weeks, were still very encouraging, up +35% YoY.
In the Western states Arizona and California, where Covid cases have been increasing, revenue has decreased. Starting in May, these states combined averaged over +15% YoY for five weeks straight. This dropped to +6% YoY the week of June 4-10 and was down -8% YoY last week. Calls have also been much lower in the past two weeks. It was -15% YoY this week, which was up from -28% YoY the previous week.
JUNE 11 SUMMARY
ServiceTitan data shows that this past week, revenue reached its highest year-over-year mark since before the crisis began. Other indicators suggest that demand is heating up for the summer.
Revenue for the week of June 4-10 was up +11% year-over-year, compared with 8.7% the week of May 28-June 3. This was the sixth consecutive week of positive year-over-year growth. Revenue had been around +8% before the crisis, so this is a good sign of where the industry is trending.
Call volume had another positive jump at +23.5% YoY for the week of June 4-10, compared to +16% in the previous week. This is much higher than where calls were before the crisis, which was around -5% YoY. Our data shows that revenue increases generally follow call increases, so if these trends remain true, we should see the revenue recovery continue.
Regionally, there were continued strengths:
New York had its second straight week in positive territory, up +7% YoY
New Jersey saw its first week above 2019 numbers since March, with an increase in revenue of 9.4% YoY
Calls in both New York and New Jersey were above +60% YoY, which shows that demand should be high going into this week.
Pennsylvania had its second straight strong week at +20% in revenue YoY, after 9 straight weeks in negative territory
Michigan, one of the hardest-hit midwest states, was up +31% in YoY revenue last week
This week, however, the number of new Covid cases shot up by more than 50% in Arizona, Florida, New Mexico and Oregon. In Arizona, Oregon and California, there were drops of more than 10% for call demand, year-over-year, last week. We’ll be monitoring each of those states closely in the week ahead.
JUNE 4 SUMMARY
ServiceTitan data shows that the recovery in revenue has continued. This is the fifth consecutive week with revenue above 2019 numbers — and this past week is the highest since the crisis began in mid-March.
Revenue for the week of May 28-June 3 was up +7% year-over-year, compared with +5% the week of May 21-27. This is less than 1 percentage point away from the average YoY numbers from before the crisis — and 23 percentage points better than the low point of April 9-15, when revenue was down -16% YoY.
Calls continue to be a very encouraging metric with an increase of +17% this past week, on top of an increase of +14% the week of May 21-27. The two very positive weeks are the first with year-over-year growth since Feb. 13-19, and are significantly higher than where calls were before the crisis, when they had actually been weaker than 2019.
Future jobs had the most eye-catching change from the previous week with an increase of +13.3% YoY for May 28-June 3, compared to an increase of +3.5% the week of May 21-27. This, similar to calls, is significantly higher to the numbers before the Covid outbreak. As future jobs and calls go up, ticket size has been lower during this recovery at -1.2% YoY this past week. The dynamic seems to be more jobs but at lower ticket prices — but we will continue to monitor this trend.
Lastly, we have been tracking New York for several weeks now, since it was the area most impacted by Covid for cases, as well as revenue. New York revenue was positive year-over-year for the first time since March 12-18, with an increase of +8.3% — an astonishing recovery from the low point of being down -49% YoY April 9-16. New York call volume was also +40% YoY, so there may be room for revenue to grow in the coming weeks.
MAY 29 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that for the first time since this crisis began, revenue has risen above 2019 levels, after three weeks of it being roughly equal to 2019. There was also a dramatic increase in calls, year-over-year — the biggest increase in all of 2020, and the first time calls have been positive year-over-year since early February.
For the past three weeks, starting with the last week in April, revenue had leveled off, nearly even with 2019. For the week of May 21-27, revenue in aggregate is up +4% over 2019. This is the best week in comparative revenue since March 19-25, which is when the lockdowns began officially in a number of states.
An extremely encouraging sign is the healthy demand shown through calls this week. Calls shot up +15% year-over-year, which is by far the highest week in 2020 — even with Memorial Day on Monday. The week of May 14-20, calls were down 3.2% year-over-year, resulting in a one-week jump of more than 18% when compared to 2019 levels. Calls had been in negative territory since the crisis began, bottoming out at down -31.6% around the start of April.
The demand surge is especially acute in the Midwest and Great Lakes region. Several states, such as Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin and Indiana saw call volume increase 90% in aggregate year over year. Some specifics:
Michigan call volume surged +212% year-over-year
Wisconsin call volume surged +136% year-over-year
Ohio call volume was up +108% year-over-year
Some but not all of these states are also seeing gains in revenue, so we will keep tracking this region to see if this dynamic continues.
The rebound also continues in some of the hardest-hit Northeast states. New York revenue climbed for the seventh straight week, now at -6% year-over-year — and calls shot up to +50% year-over-year this week. Massachusetts revenue jumped 17% week over week, now barely topping 2019 levels, up +0.5%.
MAY 22 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that revenue has been stable for three consecutive weeks and that calls and future jobs continue to trend in an upward direction.
Revenue, in aggregate, was up +0.1% year-over-year for the week of May 14-20, nearly identical to the -0.4% year-over-year decrease for the week of May 7-13 — and the +0.9% increase the week of April 30-May 6.
The positive trends of calls and future jobs continue as well:
Calls improved to -2.5% year over year, which is the best week since the crisis began.
Future jobs are also at a Covid-period high with -0.5% YoY numbers, which is up from -2% the previous week.
Regionally, it has been stable the past week with the exception of some improvement in the Southeastern region of the U.S., where revenue was looking weak relative to the rest of the country during the week of May 7-13. This past week, revenue has picked up to an increase of +.5% year-over-year, compared to a -13% decrease the week of May 7-13. Other indicators are also looking stronger in this region.
We will continue to analyze how different parts of the country recover from Covid-19, especially as states start to reopen their economies.
MAY 15 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that after the major jump last week, revenue has stabilized in aggregate, while regional differences remain.
Year over year, revenue was down -1% for the week of May 7-13 compared to a very slight increase (+0.4%) the previous week. Two weeks ago (April 23-29) revenue was down 12% year over year.
The leading indicators of calls and future jobs were also quite close to last week:
Call leads were down -5.5% for May 7-13, compared to -3.5% for April 30-May 6.
Future jobs improved to down -3% for May 7-13, compared to -5% for April 30-May 6.
There were some differences regionally that we will be tracking. Western states, such as California, Arizona, Colorado, and Washington, have been tracking above +10% YoY for the past two weeks. Arizona was up 31% year-over-year last week. Washington, one of the earliest states impacted by Covid-19, jumped from down 22% for April 23-29 to up 2% year-over-year April 30-May 6.
This is in contrast to the Southeastern region of the U.S., where revenue has dropped below -10% YoY this past week in several states.
Another area we’ve been monitoring closely is New York and New Jersey, both of which continue to improve as they recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. The combined revenue of these states climbed to -11.5% year-over-year for May 7-13, as compared to down -27.5% the previous week, which is up from -43% at the low.
MAY 8 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that in aggregate, this was the best week for contractor revenue, year-over-year, since the crisis began.
Revenue was slightly up (+0.2%), year-over-year, for the week of April 30-May 6, as compared to -12.3% the previous week. This was the first week since March 19-25 that year-over-year revenue increased.
The rebound was most dramatic in states like Arizona and California, where both a heat wave and the initial moves toward reopening the states gave big lifts to revenue:
Revenue in Arizona was up +30% year-over-year for April 30-May 6, as compared to down -4% the previous week (a 34% swing).
Revenue in California was up +7% year-over-year for April 30-May 6, as compared to down -17% the previous week (a 24% swing). It was the first positive week, year-over-year, since March 5-11, and included a day (April 30) in which revenue increased 51% over last year.
Interestingly, it appears that the average ticket size of jobs completed were big keys to this increase as well — as both states’ ticket size improved to +10% year-over-year, compared to down -10% the previous week.
States that have borne the early brunt of Covid-19 cases also had an improved week, although not at the level of the previously mentioned states. New York had its best revenue week since March 19-25, with revenue down -25.5% year-over-year. This is a remarkable improvement from being down -50% only three weeks ago. The leading indicator of calls had a high improvement of -8% from -32%, which means we will monitor for revenue to recover even more in the coming weeks.
MAY 1 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that indicators of demand — such as calls and future jobs — had their highest one-week year-over-year increase since the crisis began. Revenue, however, remains around where it was last week.
The rise in call leads was the biggest change in the past week — now at a year-over-year decrease of -10% for the week of April 23-29, compared to -20% for the week of April 16-22. For certain states the increase was especially dramatic: California went from -29% YoY to +11% YoY, while Arizona surged from -11% to +23%.
Future jobs improved to -11% YoY from -14.5% the previous week, which is the third week in a row that this metric has trended in a positive direction.
In aggregate, revenue was at -13.5% year-over-year for the week of April 23-29, roughly comparable to the week of April 16-22, where it was -11.5% YoY.
Besides call leads, California, which has had very warm weather the past week, improved in other areas. Revenue increased to -17.5% YoY from -26% and future jobs rose to -12% from -20%.
One interesting dynamic in California and some other states that had warm weather is that ticket sizes decreased compared to last year. We will be monitoring this dynamic to see whether consumers are opting for maintenance jobs at this moment and if this will push higher-ticket installation jobs later into the summer.
APRIL 24 UPDATE
ServiceTitan data shows that in aggregate, revenue has stabilized and actually improved from the previous week. Call leads continue to show signs of bouncing back as well — and future jobs increased from the previous week for the first time since the crisis began.
For the week of April 16-22, completed job revenue improved to -12% year over year, as compared to down -16.5% YoY for the week of April 9-15.
Call leads improved to -20% year-over-year, compared to -26.5% the previous week
Future jobs improved to -15% year-over-year, compared to -17% the previous week
New York, which has been the hardest-hit state in the country, saw a big jump in revenue, which coincides with positive signs in their Covid cases descending. The state improved to -32% for revenue year-over-year, compared to down -50% the previous week. Future jobs and calls also improved, which bodes well for the week ahead.
One of the strongest areas was Florida, which jumped back into positive territory on revenue this week — up +7.5% year over year, as compared to down -5% YoY last week. Similar to New York, future jobs and calls were greatly improved from last week, so we will continue to monitor this trend as the recovery continues.
APRIL 17 UPDATE
Our data shows that revenue, while still down compared to 2019, improved week-over-week. In addition, call leads increased from last week as well.
In aggregate, completed job revenue increased +4.5% for the week of April 9-15, compared to the previous week. When compared to 2019 data, completed job revenue for the week of April 9-15 was down -17.5% year-over-year — it was down -10% YoY the week of April 2-8.
Another interesting metric is call leads, which increased +8.5% from the week of April 2-8. When compared to 2019 data, calls for April 9-15 were down -25% year-over-year — they had been down -30% YoY the previous week.
There continue to be highly divergent regional trends, since this outbreak is impacting areas on unique timelines. For example, Washington — one of the earliest impacted states — was down -10% in job revenue this week, as compared to down -25% YoY the week of April 2-8. Call leads and future jobs were also slightly higher for Washington the week of April 9-15.
In contrast, job revenue in Florida was down compared to 2019 for the first time. We will continue to monitor the later-impacted states to see if they follow a similar path to early states — in both the initial weakening relative to 2019, but also in their recovery.
APRIL 10 UPDATE
Our data shows that revenue is now impacted in all regions of the country, but is still near 2019 levels for many of these regions.
In aggregate, completed job revenue was down -11% year-over-year for the week of April 2-8. This is down from -2% the previous week.
One factor in this decline is that revenue dropped in areas of the country that had been relatively unimpacted until this week. In aggregate, these states had been up more than 10% even through the middle of March, and are now decreasing to 2019 levels. For example, Florida’s stay-at-home order went into effect at the start of this week — and the state changed from +18% year-over-year March 25-April 1, to even with 2019 this week.
New York and New Jersey continue to be one of the most COVID-impacted areas of the country. In terms of revenue, these two states were relatively flat this week compared to last week. New York and New Jersey combined went from -34.5% to -37.5% week-over-week. There is data suggesting that this current week will be the most difficult for this area, so we will be monitoring data closely over the next 7-10 days to see the impacts on revenue.
APRIL 3 UPDATE
The most critical takeaway is that our data shows that as COVID-19 continues to impact communities, revenue has only dropped a few percentage points when compared to 2019 nationwide. Many of the daily fluctuations below may be normal relative to daily fluctuations of weather, which in certain trades is a large driver of demand.
In aggregate, completed job revenue for ServiceTitan customers was down -3% year-over-year for the week of March 26-April 1. That is down from the week prior, March 19-25, which showed revenue up +6% (YoY).
At the day level, revenue has been fluctuating between good days and bad. Tuesday, March 31, was +9.5% YoY, whereas Wednesday (April 1) was -3.5% YoY.
California and Washington, which were the first two states impacted and who enacted social-distancing measures early, are doing better comparatively to New York and New Jersey on the East Coast. California and Washington are both -15% YoY on average for the week of March 26. New York and New Jersey are at -30% YoY for this same week.
Some states are still seeing positive revenue numbers. For the week of March 26-April 1, Florida, Texas, and North Carolina are all seeing around +15% increases from last year — and their overall March was appreciably higher than January or February, year-over-year.
Across the nation, we are seeing higher ticket sizes for completed jobs — a +16% YoY increase for March 19-25 and +12% increase YoY for March 26-April 1. The average ticket size before March was closer to +7% YoY, so this is a notable increase. There has been a similar increase in close rate, which was its highest of the year for the week of March 26 with an increase of +8% — compared to +5% YoY for January and February.
MARCH 27 ANALYSIS
The most critical takeaway is that our data shows that revenue continues to be relatively stable and consistent thus far.
In aggregate, completed job revenue for ServiceTitan customers — was up 6% year-over-year for the week of March 19-25. Revenue was up 8% (YoY) for the week of March 12-18, and 5% (YoY) for the week of March 5-11.
On another positive note, it appears that cancellations appear to be a phenomenon that happens once per region — possibly in conjunction with a declaration of “shelter in place” or “safer at home” — but then stabilize back to normal rates within a few days.
In some of the highly-impacted states, Washington continues to see some of the largest impacts. Year-over-year revenue was down 8% for the week of March 5-11, then recovered with a 3.5% increase March 12-18, and was down 2% year-over-year for March 19-25.
In California, completed job revenue that was up 15% year-to-date was down 5% for the week of March 12-18 and down 1.5% for March 19-25. While this may seem significant, we have seen greater fluctuations than this from weather changes alone.